Current recovery gap widening against norm, Fed

Current recovery is sluggish but the pace of sluggishness is increasing and so widening the gap against previous business cycle recoveries says Cleveland Fed.

“Not only is the recent recession deeper and longer than the average post-WWII recession, but following the trough, 6 quarters into the episode, the divergence between the current recovery and the average of previous recoveries is apparent,” write Pedro Amaral and Margaret Jacobson for  Economic Trends.

The fact that the GDP gap is widening (chart above), say the authors, suggests that it is not just about the absolute GDP levels but because of the widening it is the growth rates that are lagging.

By indexing the GDP to 100, the 2007 recovery growth is lagging the average one from the past.